A Reuters poll on fracking, and the problems with the export debate.

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As this shows, a Reuters poll asked American citizens for some of their thoughts on the current US oil production boom, even though nearly three-quarters of this nation freely conceded that they knew little to nothing about US oil production.

First, some context is necessary for this poll.  In 1975, President Gerald Ford signed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act(EPCA) into law to respond to the Arab oil embargo.  The law imposed new regulations on the export of crude oil and natural gas, though the President has the authority to grant exemptions as he sees fit.  In recent years, concerned citizens and business have campaigned for a revision of this law due to the oil and gas boom created by fracking.  So far it appears that despite this renewed interest, the ban will not be lifted: Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz stated about three weeks ago that he believed the oil industry had not made a good enough case to call for an ending of the ban.  The Reuters poll also shows that the American populace are not in favor of the ban: even if one notes the apparent bias of the fourth and sixth questions in the poll, the other questions still show a clear majority in favor of a sentiment of “keeping the oil for ourselves!”  After all, it makes little sense for the United States, a country which imports 7 million barrels of crude per day despite the shale oil boom, to be exporting crude oil, does it not?

The problem with this argument is that it betrays the lack of knowledge which Americans have openly admitted that they possess about the oil which is the lifeblood of the modern economy.  America may import more crude than it did in 1975 ( though it has continued to fall every year since a high of about 12,500 barrels in 2005), but the oil industry has dramatically changed at a rate which refineries are not yet capable of handling.  Most American refineries are designed to handle heavy crude oil, which the US largely imports from places like the Middle East and Venezuela.  Fracking however mostly produces light, “sweet” crude oil.  While sweet oil is more efficient to process than heavy crude, American refineries are not designed to handle them, and the process of conversion is slow.  So, it makes sense to export light crude to refineries which can handle them, while oil refineries continue to import the heavy crude which they are designed for until they can convert to refining light oil.  Furthermore, the idea that exporting crude oil will increase the price of gasoline makes little sense – while the EPCA regulates crude oil and natural gas, there are no restrictions on exporting gasoline and refined oil products.  It can in fact be argued that removing the export ban may indeed lower the price of gasoline, as flooding the global market with crude which can be easily refined will result in gasoline, thus lowering prices in classic free-trade style.

Still, as mentioned above, it appears to be unlikely that there will be reform in removing the EPCA.  Now, there are good intentions and good reasons behind this.  For one, there are concerns about the long-term viability, which could lead to an embarrassing situation of oil refineries slowly converting to handle light crude – only for the light crude to be already extracted by then.  And some environmentalists would prefer that America would just use less oil and go on a full crash-course towards possibly viable “green” energy.  But none of this is acknowledged by the American public, whom the vast majority know nothing more about oil than what is on the gas meter, complete with mercantile ideas about “keeping all the oil for ourselves.”  For even as fracking creates a global energy boom with significant economic and geopolitical effects, the American people to this day do not really know what fracking is, or perceive as it as some new technology with possible new risks.  Fracking is none of those things – but as long as the American people believe so, it is necessary to educate them about the process, a success which will come when misinformed polls like the above are no longer the nature of things.

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